Dogs of the Dow ranks on yield alone. This version asks a harder question: does the cash flow actually cover the dividend, and has it for five years? The screen narrows the Dow 30, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 to mature, cash-generative dividend payers, then tests every survivor on five years of free cash flow from SEC filings. Results for all 15 names are published.
Screen as of 28 Sep 202615 names passedFY2021–FY2025SEC filings
The work that best shows how I think, research and build. Each item goes directly to the material behind it.
01 · Investment researchActive
Stuart's Dogs
A revised Dogs of the Dow framework. Start with mature, cash-generative businesses, then examine FCF, dividends, valuation, balance-sheet strength and potential mispricing.
Dow 30S&P 500NASDAQ-100Screen as of 28 Sep 2026 · 15 survivors
What I did
Rebuilt the Dogs of the Dow screen across the Dow 30, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100. 15 names passed the 28 Sep 2026 screen; each was then tested on five fiscal years of SEC-filed cash flow.
How
FY2021–FY2025 free cash flow, FCF per share, normalized FCF, dividend/FCF coverage and net debt, so names pass on cash generation rather than on yield alone. PYPL passed but was held out as a financial.
What it shows
Fundamental screening with explicit rules, plus judgment applied where the rules stop. Five-year results for all 15 names are published; valuation and keep / cut decisions come next.
A mechanical weekly screen for contracts that meet a required return while minimizing relative assignment risk. The methodology separates hard rules from research judgment.
ReturnLiquidityDeltaCatalysts
What I did
Designed a mechanical weekly screen for short-put contracts that meet a required return.
How
Hard rules (liquidity, strike distance, no earnings or binary events), then a 0–105 assignment-risk score built from delta, ATR distance, trend/support, ATR %, liquidity and a catalyst penalty.
What it shows
Separating mechanical rules from research judgment, and stating what a score does and does not mean.
Browser app for cash-secured put, bull put spread and covered call workflows: option-chain analysis, risk/return calculations, payoff charts, wheel cycles and trade tracking.
BuilderTradesAnalyticsTickers
What I did
Designed the workflow, risk rules and calculations for a wheel-strategy planner, and built it as a browser app using AI-assisted development.
How
Ranks strikes from the option chain, then charts profit and loss at expiration and before it, with breakevens, Greeks and a model chance of profit. It also keeps a trade ledger, wheel cycles and per-ticker risk limits.
What it shows
Turning a strategy into repeatable, checkable risk tooling. The public version runs on sample trades.
A review of an energy-focused student equity portfolio against its income mandate, introducing a Yield/Beta framework for income efficiency relative to market risk.
YieldBetaIncome mandate
What I did
Reviewed an energy-focused student equity portfolio against its income mandate.
How
Identified structural problems in the mandate, then introduced a Yield/Beta framework that measures income efficiency relative to market risk.
What it shows
Portfolio review and written recommendations, which is the work a client or investment committee reads.
Research is where the site stops being a résumé and starts showing the actual analytical work: frameworks, company analysis, valuation questions and portfolio thinking.
Flagship research
Stuart's Dogs
Original research on improving the Dogs framework through FCF, dividends, valuation and balance-sheet quality.
Detailed study below
Options / income
Monday Options Screener
A mechanical weekly screen designed to find contracts with required return while minimizing relative assignment risk. Not a cash substitute.
Methodology below
Human + machine
Centaur Finance
AI as scale, verification and synthesis. Human judgment remains responsible for whether the conclusion makes economic sense.
Research philosophy below
Flagship project
Stuart's Dogs
Improve Dogs of the Dow without reducing investing to a yield ranking.
The Dow 30 is the starting universe. The research looks for mature, cash-generative companies with sustainable free cash flow, meaningful dividends, reasonable valuation and potential temporary mispricing.
UniversesDow 30 · S&P 500 · NASDAQ-100
Current survivorsScreen as of 28 Sep 2026 · 4 Dow · 7 S&P 500 · 4 NASDAQ-100 · 15 total
Dow 30IBM · UNH · CVX · HD
S&P 500ACN · BF.B · BR · COP · EOG · SNA · STZ
NASDAQ-100ADP · INTU · NXPI · QCOM (PYPL also passed; held out as a financial)
ResultsFive fiscal years for all 15 names, from SEC 10-K filings · table below
NextValuation on the five-year median · keep / cut decisions · deep dives on CVX and EOG
Results · five fiscal years per company
What the cash flow shows
Every company that passed the screen, tested on its last five reported fiscal years. Figures come straight from SEC 10-K filings, retrieved 13 Oct 2026. The table presents evidence only: valuation and keep / cut decisions are the next step.
Ticker
Index
Latest FY end
FCF latest FY ($B)
FCF / share latest
5-yr median FCF / share
FCF / share growth, 4 yrs (annual)
3 yrs (annual)
1 yr
Volatility
Dividend / share growth, 4 yrs
FCF ÷ dividends paid
Net debt ÷ FCF
IBM
Dow 30
Dec 2025
12.10
12.76
12.76
+1.8%
+8.6%
−3.6%
11%
+0.6%
1.93x
3.94x
UNH
Dow 30
Dec 2025
16.07
17.65
22.29
−4.0%
−10.5%
−20.8%
15%
+11.7%
2.03x
3.36x
CVX
Dow 30
Dec 2025
16.59
8.94
10.52
−5.1%
−22.8%
+8.0%
34%
+6.5%
1.30x
2.08x
HD
Dow 30
Feb 2026
12.65
12.71
13.24
−1.0%
+4.3%
−22.7%
17%
+8.7%
1.38x
4.30x
ACN
S&P 500
Aug 2025
10.87
17.19
13.73
+7.2%
+7.8%
+26.9%
10%
+13.9%
2.94x
−0.58x
BF.B
S&P 500
Apr 2026
0.89
1.91
0.95
+3.6%
+26.2%
+110.0%
35%
−14.8%
2.09x
2.46x
BR
S&P 500
Jun 2026
1.23
10.53
7.92
+35.5%
+18.8%
+17.9%
34%
+11.1%
2.78x
2.31x
COP
S&P 500
Dec 2025
7.24
5.78
7.23
−10.0%
−25.9%
−14.8%
35%
+16.1%
1.81x
2.34x
EOG
S&P 500
Dec 2025
3.45
6.32
8.83
−7.0%
−15.2%
−37.7%
16%
−5.4%
1.60x
1.32x
SNA
S&P 500
Jan 2026
1.01
18.98
18.98
+3.9%
+20.3%
−10.5%
21%
+14.8%
2.18x
−0.42x
STZ
S&P 500
Feb 2026
1.79
10.22
n/r
n/r
n/r
−4.3%
n/r
n/r
2.51x
5.83x
ADP
NASDAQ-100
Jun 2026
4.78
11.84
8.75
+18.3%
+10.6%
+10.2%
22%
+13.2%
1.82x
0.15x
INTU
NASDAQ-100
Jul 2026
8.62
31.11
16.91
+24.6%
+22.5%
+44.7%
32%
+15.3%
6.40x
0.34x
NXPI
NASDAQ-100
Dec 2025
2.42
9.53
9.53
+3.3%
−3.9%
+19.5%
11%
+15.9%
2.36x
3.70x
QCOM
NASDAQ-100
Sep 2025
12.82
11.60
8.75
+11.4%
+24.5%
+17.5%
22%
+6.9%
3.37x
0.72x
Five-year history: FCF ($B) and FCF per share, oldest to latest fiscal year
Ticker
Fiscal years
FCF FY1
FY2
FY3
FY4
FY5
FCF/sh FY1
FY2
FY3
FY4
FY5
IBM
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
10.73
9.09
12.69
12.40
12.10
11.87
9.96
13.76
13.23
12.76
UNH
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
19.89
23.40
25.68
20.70
16.07
20.80
24.64
27.38
22.29
17.65
CVX
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
21.13
37.63
19.78
15.04
16.59
11.01
19.40
10.52
8.28
8.94
HD
Jan 2022 – Feb 2026
14.01
11.50
17.95
16.32
12.65
13.24
11.22
17.91
16.44
12.71
ACN
Aug 2021 – Aug 2025
8.40
8.82
9.00
8.61
10.87
13.00
13.73
14.09
13.55
17.19
BF.B
Apr 2022 – Apr 2026
0.80
0.46
0.42
0.43
0.89
1.66
0.95
0.88
0.91
1.91
BR
Jun 2022 – Jun 2026
0.37
0.75
0.94
1.06
1.23
3.13
6.29
7.92
8.93
10.53
COP
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
11.67
18.16
8.72
8.01
7.24
8.79
14.20
7.23
6.78
5.78
EOG
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
4.94
6.09
5.16
5.77
3.45
8.46
10.38
8.83
10.14
6.32
SNA
Jan 2022 – Jan 2026
0.90
0.59
1.06
1.13
1.01
16.30
10.90
19.65
21.20
18.98
STZ
Feb 2022 – Feb 2026
1.68
1.72
1.51
1.94
1.79
n/r
n/r
8.21
10.68
10.22
ADP
Jun 2022 – Jun 2026
2.55
3.64
3.59
4.39
4.78
6.05
8.75
8.72
10.75
11.84
INTU
Jul 2022 – Jul 2026
3.66
4.79
4.63
6.08
8.62
12.89
16.91
16.32
21.49
31.11
NXPI
Dec 2021 – Dec 2025
2.31
2.83
2.69
2.06
2.42
8.38
10.73
10.28
7.97
9.53
QCOM
Sep 2021 – Sep 2025
8.65
6.83
9.85
11.16
12.82
7.53
6.01
8.75
9.88
11.60
Definitions. Free cash flow = cash from operations minus capital expenditures (including capitalized or purchased software where the company reports it as a separate line). FCF per share uses diluted weighted-average shares. Volatility = standard deviation of FCF per share ÷ its five-year average. Net debt = short-term and long-term debt minus cash and equivalents at the latest fiscal year end (operating leases excluded), divided by latest-year FCF. A negative net debt means more cash than debt. n/r = not retrieved.
Dow 30 screen. P/FCF under 20x · dividend yield over 2% · positive dividend growth · FCF payout under 80% · FCF margin over 10%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 screens use tighter quality filters and exclude financials.
Read with care. IBM's own FCF definition excludes changes in financing receivables, so its reported FCF is higher than the standardized figure here. CVX, COP and EOG include the 2022 commodity-price spike, which is why the five-year median matters more than the growth rates; EOG's dividends per share include special dividends. COP's 2023–2025 capital spending is its reported "capital expenditures and investments." HD spent $17.6B (FY2024) and $5.4B (FY2025) on acquisitions, which drives its net debt. BF.B's FY2022 dividends include a special dividend, which turns its dividend growth negative. STZ's per-share figures start in FY2024 because of its FY2023 share-class reclassification. ADP's capital spending includes additions to intangibles (largely software). UNH reported Q3 2026 results on 13 Oct; this table uses completed fiscal years only.
Earnings, binary events, SEC filings, dilution, offerings, warrants, converts, material agreements, IR, lockups, litigation and crypto exposure.
Assignment-risk score
Delta 30 · ATR distance 20 · trend/support 15 · ATR % 10 · liquidity 10 · catalyst 0–20. Scores run 0–105: up to 85 from the five components, plus a 0–20 catalyst penalty. Lower score means lower relative assignment risk, not a probability of assignment.
Research philosophy
Centaur Finance
The interesting future of AI in finance is not replacing analysts. It is giving good analysts more leverage without outsourcing judgment.
Scale
Collect information, compare filings, summarize documents and run repeatable checks faster.
Verification
Check calculations, surface inconsistencies and make source discipline easier to maintain.
Judgment
The human decides whether the conclusion makes economic sense. The model gets no vote merely because it is articulate.
Tools
Analytical work becomes more useful when it turns into something repeatable.
Browser app · wheel strategy
Natural State Alpha Wheel Tracker
Wheel-strategy planner with Dashboard, Trades, Builder, Tickers, Analytics and Settings. The Builder ranks strikes from the option chain for cash-secured puts, short puts, covered calls and bull put spreads, and charts the profit and loss at expiration and on any day before it, with breakevens, Greeks and a model chance of profit. The tracker keeps the trade ledger, wheel cycles, ticker risk limits and analytics. It opens with sample trades; live option chains are reserved for the owner.
Centaur Finance: Redefining Analyst Workflows, Decision Architecture, and Alpha Generation Through Human-AI Collaboration
An examination of how AI changes financial research, where human judgment remains essential, and how a governed human-AI workflow can improve research scale without surrendering accountability.
Academic paper · 20254,408 words
Technology · Walmart · Supply Chain
The Three-Layer Stack: Integrating Blockchain, Cloud, and AI for Actionable Insights
Using Walmart's food-traceability work as the case study, this piece examines the practical relationship between blockchain, cloud infrastructure and AI—and what the technology means for trust, traceability and decision-making.
Academic paper · 20266,983 words
Economics · Political Economy
Ethical Capitalism: Or Socialism by Any Other Name
An examination of markets, moral responsibility, ownership and democratic constraint, asking whether capitalism can be made genuinely ethical through institutions—or whether the deeper question is who holds economic power.
Essay · 20261,449 words
Capital for Everyone · Book Project
Chapter One: The Piketty Trap
The opening chapter of Capital for Everyone: A Roadmap to Universal Prosperity, examining capital concentration, Piketty's diagnosis, and the case for broadening ownership rather than destroying the compounding engine.
Book chapter · 20264,913 words
Portfolio Management · Energy · Income
Reviewing an Energy-Focused Student Equity Portfolio for Income Mandate Compliance
A practical portfolio review identifying structural problems in an energy-income mandate and introducing a Yield/Beta framework for evaluating income efficiency relative to market risk.
Portfolio review · 20261,042 words
Book project · Active
Capital for Everyone
Capital for Everyone: A Roadmap to Universal Prosperity. An economics and wealth-inequality project. 22 chapters are drafted and the book is now in edit.
Chapter One available above
Stuart Reid
Capital for Everyone
A Roadmap to Universal Prosperity
Book · in edit · 22 chapters drafted
Capital for Everyone
Capital compounds, and most people don't own any. The book takes Piketty's diagnosis seriously and argues for broadening ownership rather than breaking the compounding engine.
"Notify me" opens an email to me. One reply when the book is available.
Contents
#
Chapter
Status
1
The Piketty Trap
Free to read
2–22
Drafted
In edit
About
Stuart Reid
Finance is most useful when complicated information becomes a decision someone can actually use.
MSc Finance graduate from the University of Arkansas and Deputy Portfolio Manager for the Shollmier Fund, with 13+ years of analytical and client-facing experience.
The work sits at the intersection of investment research, portfolio analytics, financial modeling and practical decision support. Python, Excel and AI are tools. Judgment remains the point.
EducationMSc Finance, University of Arkansas — May 2026